Iran Done Right

No one can accuse me of being a Trump fan—as those who’ve received these messages in the past can attest—but what he has done thus far in Iran was the most important act of his or any recent presidency.

Iran was certainly the most dangerous adversary on the planet—controlled by a religious cult with the will, resources and technological skill to develop and use nuclear weapons. This was no ordinary troublemaker.

Trump has stopped that threat—perhaps temporarily, perhaps permanently—but in any event for a significant period. The benefits that this will provide to America, Israel and the rest of the world will be seen in a more peaceful future.

It takes a lot of political hatred for some Americans—both left and right—not to see these obvious gains, and to turn on the one President who had the will to do what his predecessors had continually put off. It’s a shameful political course that puts America’s interests last, and should be remembered by the rest of us.

Trump’s choice, along with Israel, was to go part of the way as the war began—destroying Iran’s military and nuclear capacity without committing US ground forces. This will provide the United States and Israel with the time to assess whether the Iranian people can form their own government. That’s the right question for now.

Eliminating Iran’s military capacity, even for a few years, will give the US, Israel and the rest of the Mideast the opportunity to plan for a quiet period, even if it’s not permanent. It will let many of the Mideast nations join the Abraham Accords with Israel, possibly turning the entire region into a peaceful trading hub, not a turbulent sector perpetually at war. Without an Iran threat for, say, five to 10 years, much can be achieved.

That’s the best foreseeable outcome at this point, but what is still unforeseeable is whether the people of Iran will be able to overturn the Mullahs and establish a broad-based—even a democratic—government. If they can’t, if the Mullahs retain their power, the choices become more difficult.

While the destruction of Iran’s military power will give the free world a respite, China and Russia might see it in their interests to restore some or all of the military equipment that is being destroyed in Iran. Even if this occurs, it will take years, and not interfere with the gradual integration of the nations in the Mideast, but the future will still be cloudy. The West, led by the United States, could still be faced with the threat of a resurgent Iran.

This why Trump is now calling for Iran’s unconditional surrender. That would be the same thing as the Mullahs being overthrown, and appears at this point a greater longshot than a popular revolt.

But it makes the point that the key question is what survives the current Iranian government. The decision to use US troops would be and should be a last resort, even if feasible. Remember: “You broke it; you own own it.” Shiite control was built on a vast and loyal Shiite population, which even a democratic government made up of Iranians would find difficult to control. US control after an invasion could be a nightmare.

An intermediate position would be to offer Iran assistance in its serious water and financial problems, in return for a promise of remaining disarmed, without nuclear ambitions, and maybe a willingness to allow the growth of a political opposition. There are lots of possibilities.

If they could see beyond their hatred, Trump’s opponents in the US would understand that the elimination of Iran as a malefactor of evil in the Mideast will be a turning point in modern world history, and that Donald Trump has done something truly worthwhile without involving the US in what could be a punishing and deadly war.